Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) — Current price: $79.23. My buy zone: ≤ $62 (starter), ≤ $55 (aggressive). Rationale: I want ~8–9× EV/2025E revenue vs peers ~9×; at today’s cap/Net debt, that implies ~$55–$62/share for a margin of safety.

Stock market information for Tempus AI Inc. (TEM)

• Tempus AI Inc. is a equity in the USA market.
• The price is 79.23 USD currently with a change of -4.93 USD (-0.06%) from the previous close.
• The latest open price was 84.5 USD and the intraday volume is 9730152.
• The intraday high is 85.63 USD and the intraday low is 78.8 USD.
• The latest trade time is Thursday, September 25, 05:45:00 +0530.

GPT Investor Master Checklist (fast, Buffett/Munger-style)

1) Company overview

• What they do: AI-enabled precision medicine: clinical & genomic testing (oncology + hereditary) and data/insights services for pharma/biotech. Their platform links patient clinical + DNA/RNA data to treatment decisions. (Tempus Investors)
• Sector: Healthcare technology / diagnostics & life-sciences data.
• TAM: Street/coverage pieces peg ~$200B combined precision-oncology/data opportunity (ballpark; highly assumption-laden). (Investing.com)
• Competitors & share: Guardant Health, Foundation Medicine (Roche), Caris, Natera, Personalis; plus “big tech” circling health AI. (Guardant Health Investor Relations)
• Concentration risk: Two segments—Genomics testing (~77% of Q2 rev) + Data & services. Pharma/data deals lumpy by nature. (Tempus Investors)

2) Quick screen

• Debt/Equity: LT debt $471.7M; total debt (incl. revolver) ~$579.6M vs equity $309.6M (D/E ~1.9×). (SEC)
• Registered address: 600 West Chicago Ave., Suite 510, Chicago, IL 60654. (SEC)
• Scandal/fraud: No operational fraud adjudications, but securities-class-action filings/“AI-washing” allegations surfaced mid-2025 (typical for hot IPOs)—watch this risk. (dandodiary.com)
• Debtor days (approx): AR $266.3M vs Q2 revenue $314.6M ⇒ ~76 days. (SEC)
• Market cap: ~$14–15B recent range. (MacroTrends)
• Cash & equivalents: $186.3M (Q2). (SEC)
• FCF: Not singled out; still loss-making on adj. EBITDA (Q2 adj. EBITDA –$5.6M). (Tempus Investors)
• FX exposure: Minimal; mostly US. (SEC)

3) Shareholder alignment

• Promoters/management: Founder-CEO Eric Lefkofsky (Groupon co-founder). Past Groupon controversies exist; not a blocker, but context. (Fortune)
• Ownership/pledge: High insider & institutional mix; no pledge red flags noted in filings. (Yahoo Finance)
• Transparency: Regular IR updates and detailed segment disclosure. (Tempus Investors)
• Dividend: None (growth mode).
• IPO use of proceeds: Growth; company later issued $750M 0.75% 2030 converts (July-2025). (SEC)

4) Performance

• Share price: See live widget above.
• Revenue: Q2-25 $314.6M, +89.6% y/y; Genomics $241.8M (+115% y/y); Data & services $72.8M (+36% y/y). (Tempus Investors)
• Guidance: FY-2025 rev ≈ $1.24B; adj. EBITDA ≈ $5M. (Tempus)
• Profitability: Still GAAP-loss; gross profit $195M in Q2. (Tempus)
• EPS/5-yr margin trends: Too early post-IPO for a clean 5-yr read.

5) Efficiency (latest quarter unless noted)

• OPM / EBITDA: Adj. EBITDA –$5.6M (turning). (Tempus Investors)
• ROCE/ROE: Not meaningful (negative GAAP).
• Asset turnover: Rising with test volumes; qualitative positive. (Tempus)
• Working capital: AR growth with scale; DSO ~76d (watch collections discipline). (SEC)
• Inventory days: Inventories $47.6M vs est. COGS ≈ $119.6M (Q2) ⇒ ~36 days (rough). (SEC)

6) Financial risk

• Leverage: Converts + term/revolver bring total debt ~$580M; cash $186M; company states liquidity >12 months. (SEC)
• Credit rating: Not rated by CRISIL/ICRA; US converts priced at 0.75% (signals market confidence then). (SEC)
• Contingent/legal: Class-action exposure (typical for momentum IPOs). (dandodiary.com)

7) Volume & liquidity

• Liquidity: High; included in growth screens (IBD-50). (Investors)
• Volatility: Elevated (newly-public, litigation headlines).

8) Valuation (my lens)

• Peer yardstick: Guardant trades around ~9× EV/Rev (’25E). (GuruFocus)
• Tempus today: EV ≈ market cap (~$14.6B) + net debt (~$394M) ≈ $15.0B; on $1.24B ’25E ⇒ ~12× EV/Sales—rich vs peer. (TradingView)
• My buy logic (GARP + MoS): Pay ≤ peer multiple for a still-loss-making asset; target 8–9× EV/Sales ’25E ⇒ equity ≈ $10.7–$12.0B ⇒ $55–$62/share.

9) Growth components

• Volume flywheel: More tests → more labeled data → better AI models → more pharma deals. Evidence: Oncology test volumes +26% y/y; Insights up ~41% y/y. (Tempus)
• Product momentum: New FDA-cleared RNA analysis device (supports life-sciences research). (Investors)
• M&A/platform: Ambry/others integrated; significant intangibles added in 1H-25. (SEC)
• ESG/people: Not a core driver yet; talent density matters (AI + wet lab).

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My call (straight talk)

• Not a value buy at $79. Gorgeous top-line, but you’re paying a premium (12× EV/Sales) with litigation noise and leverage creeping up. I’d wait for ≤ $62 (starter) and load only ≤ $55.
• For momentum traders, fine—just not Buffett/Munger style. We want time + price on our side.

New frameworks to think about (beyond the checklist)

1. Data-Gravity Moat Score: % of orders where clinicians/pharma choose Tempus because their historical patient joins exist there. Track this quarterly as a proxy for lock-in.
2. Dual Flywheel Health: (a) Clinical: test ASP × volume vs payor denials; (b) Pharma: multi-year data contracts % that expand after 12 months.
3. Regulatory Optionality Index: Count of assays with FDA clearances + label-expansion pipeline; discounts revenue tail risk. (Investors)
4. Cash Conversion Discipline: DSO trend toward ≤65 days before adding size—separates “grow at all costs” from “durable compounding”. (SEC)
5. Litigation Overhang Gauge: Track case milestones; buy the dips only if fundamentals (volumes/gross profit) keep accelerating. (dandodiary.com)